Colombian presidential election run-off may impact currencies in the region

The Colombian presidential election run-off is taking place today.

It is between two candidates, Gustavo Petro an left-wing ex guerilla and right-wing candidate Ivan Duque.

Late polling is indicating the race has tightened with Duque’s lead down to 3%.

If the result is close it’ll confirm that the momentum for pro-business governments is running out of steam in the region.

Expect market reaction to the Colombian result

If that is the result I’d expect some market reaction, especially Mexico (elections 1 July) and Brazil (elections 7 October).

Gary Hollands – Geopolitical analyst Tyga FX

Postscript

The quoted poll, which was carried out just before voting, proved to be an outlier. It overestimated the strength of the blank ballot protest by two to three times for example.

Duque won with 54% of the vote to Petro’s 42%, a result in line with other polling and market expectation.